Where do the world's hungry hogs live?
2. The politics of meat (Reading time: 5 mins)
The chart above shows China produces twice more pork than the next four biggest producers combined (United States, Germany, Spain and Brazil). Yet, It’s not even close to what China needs for its own consumption. In fact, China is simultaneously the world’s largest producer, consumer and importer of pork1.
If you followed my first post, America's River of Fortune is Acting Up, you will see China is dependent on massive soy imports threatened by climate change. Why? Because China raises millions of hungry hogs, and apparently, feeding them soy-based feed is ideal. China can afford it, because decades of double digit economic growth is a hell of a drug.
But why pork?
China is home to more hogs than anywhere else on the planet.
Part of the answer is cultural. The Chinese people have suffered immensely from famines, most recently in the 1960s during the “Great Leap Forward” as a central part of the communist revolution. About 36 million people perished2, making it the single largest non-wartime fatality in human history. For the national psyche, this tragic historic memory makes food access not just a biologic necessity, but an indicator of the country’s overall progress. Pigs have always played an important part in the agrarian Chinese lifestyle, and their meat was a luxury item until the economic boom.
Part of the answer lies in global trends, which show a direct correlation between increasing GDP and meat consumption3 for most nations4, where citizens of developed nations have higher protein dense content from meat in their foods. While producing meat on such a mega-industrial scale has a destructive climate footprint, China is only following the path already set by the nations that developed earlier.
This brings us to the last part of the answer, which is political. For the communist party ruling China, providing people with cheap, easy access to once expensive luxury foods is key, especially considering its track record in the 1960s. It even has “strategic pork reserves” to flood the market, should the prices of this sensitive commodity trend upward5. This is understandable, considering the oft-unexpressed potential of the Chinese public to get into staring contests with their military tanks when life gets hard (Although purely on the amusement factor, it is hard to beat Canada’s strategic maple syrup reserves).
What happened in 2018?
After decades of nearly uninterrupted, single-minded determination in increasing pig production, China has seen precipitous declines since 2018 (Seen in the chart). The culprit: African Swine Fever. Independent estimates show China losing 50% of its pigs to the disease and has been in free-fall ever since, reducing production by almost a third6. The impact is broader, as another estimate says the disease made China lose 1% of its GDP in 20197 . That is how important hogs are to China. Note: These are all estimates because the Chinese government’s official data is, well, “official”.
Regardless, China is increasing its hog herds and its massive soy demand is only growing. In fact, despite China’s impressive technological efforts in boosting its soy harvests8, it is still going to be reliant on soy imports for the foreseeable future - especially from the United States. The climate and geopolitical implications of this story stretch far beyond these two countries, and I will soon cover those in detailed posts.
Stay tuned, and thank you for reading. Please subscribe and spread the word if you liked the content!
Leading Pork Importers Worldwide: Statista
Jisheng, Yang. "The fatal politics of the PRC's Great Leap Famine: The preface to Tombstone." Journal of Contemporary China 19.66 (2010): 755-776.
India is a major exception, because of cultural and religious codes that promote vegetarian diets and shun frequent meat consumption. Considering its billion-strong population, Planet earth sends its thanks.
China’s soybean production to increase 40 per cent by 2025 amid food-security alarms : South China Morning Post
Very interesting read! Didnt know that China is the largest producer and importer of pork. It makes sense to have a 'strategic pork reserve' especially since they already faced the famine. The writing is witty, refreshing and informative at the same time, and surely a new genre of its own. Waiting for more!